What the numbers actually say, once the headlines are set aside.
It is the sort of thing that seems settled until you look at the detail.
What actually changed
Nobody is required to explain this to you, which is half the problem. The figures move about, but the direction has been the same for three years.
What it costs
The exceptions matter more than the rule, and there are three of them. There is a deadline involved, and missing it costs more than the difference.
The short answer: check the date, then check the figure, then decide.
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