What the numbers actually say, once the headlines are set aside.
It is the sort of thing that seems settled until you look at the detail.
Where the confusion starts
Most of the confusion comes from two terms that sound alike and mean different things. The figures move about, but the direction has been the same for three years.
The exceptions
The exceptions matter more than the rule, and there are three of them. There is a deadline involved, and missing it costs more than the difference.
Where to go from here
The figures move about, but the direction has been the same for three years. Nobody is required to explain this to you, which is half the problem.
Whatever you decide, write down why. The reasoning is the part you forget.