Usd/cad Pares Its Losses, Though Capped Between The 100/200-dmas

Usd/cad Pares Its Losses, Though Capped Between The 100/200-dmas

  • Trade Ideas
  • Weekly Signals
  • 2022, 13 August

Brief:

  • USD/CAD is set to finish the week with losses of 1.22%.
  • The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for August surprises the upside and boosts the greenback.
  • US Fed officials are still committed to tackle inflation and reiterated their job is not done.

USD/CAD advances on Friday, erasing Thursday’s losses, after a positive US consumer sentiment report boosted investors’ appetite, propelling US equities higher while the greenback rose. At the time of writing, the USD/CAD is trading at 1.2773.

The USD/CAD exchanges hands above its opening price, but earlier in the European session, it tumbled to the daily low at 1.2739, but buyers moved in and lifted the pair above the 100-day EMA at 1.2795. Nevertheless, once the dust settled, the pair stabilized around current prices.

US data revealed during the morning lifted the USD/CAD above its 100-DMA when the University of Michigan showed that the US Consumer Sentiment improved from 52.5 foreseen to 55.1, reaching a three-month high. That is good news for the Federal Reserve; however, inflation expectations for a 5-year horizon jumped above the 3% threshold, while in the short-term, one year, decreased to 5% from 5.2% estimated.

Nevertheless, during the week, US inflation data pointed downwards, led by CPI down at 8.5%, while the PPI decelerated to 8.5%. However, Fed officials reiterated that even though data is welcomed, inflation still is “too high,” so the US central bank emphasized its commitment to tackling inflation.

On Thursday, San Francisco’s Fed Mary Daly said that inflation remains high and that she favors a 50 bps rate hike. However, she does not discount a 75 rate hike, but it would depend on data. On Friday, Richmond’s Fed Thomas Barkin said that inflation data is welcome, but he wants to see a sustained period of inflation under control. Barkin added he’s undecided about September’s FOMC monetary policy meeting.

In the meantime, the US Dollar Index is recovering some ground in the day, is up 0.56%, at 105.676, set to finish below the 106.000 mark.

What to watch

The Canadian economic docket will feature the Consumer Price Index for July, alongside Housing Starts and Retail Sales. On the US side, the calendar will feature the NY Fed Manufacturing, Housing data, Industrial Production, and Retail Sales.

Suggestion:

Buy above 1.2285 for 1.3400 and 1.3700

Else

Sell below 1.2285 for 1.1990 and 1.1400

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