What the numbers actually say, once the headlines are set aside.
It is the sort of thing that seems settled until you look at the detail.
What actually changed
There is a deadline involved, and missing it costs more than the difference. The figures move about, but the direction has been the same for three years.
Where to go from here
The practical effect is easier to see in a single example than in a summary. The exceptions matter more than the rule, and there are three of them.
It rewards a little attention now and punishes leaving it to next year.
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